Knowledge Centre

A wholesale central bank easing cycle is happening around the world and is likely to pick up steam in the quarters ahead. The global economy looks likely to register a modest uptick in 2024 from last year’s pace as most broad based indicators have surprised to the upside.

A weak global economy is being offset largely by declining inflation and easing financial conditions which has had the effect of propelling many financial markets to record highs around the world.

That swooshing sound investors hear is stock markets around the world zooming upward in Q1 2024. Over the past quarter, many of the world’s leading stock markets have hit record highs as has gold, various commodities, and bitcoin.

As the world continues to navigate past the long shadow of COVID, there is less uncertainty than we have had in recent years as the tail end of a decades high bout of inflation and a stomach churning 18 months of rate hikes appears to be coming to an end.

Faced with soaring inflation and one of the steepest interest rate hike cycles in history, investors have been bracing for the recessionary shoe to drop. Yet a strange thing happened on the way to this highly anticipated global slowdown: an equity bull market broke out earlier this year.

Despite the best efforts of central bankers around the world to ratchet up the gloom, economies keep churning out upbeat numbers, especially on the jobs front. Recent enthusiasm has been primed by the belief that interest rate hikes are ending, inflation has been tamed, a soft landing is likely, and...

There are signs of hope emerging for global growth, but risks remain. The outlook for this year has perked up thanks in part to increased consumer confidence, the recent decline in energy and food prices, as well as an earlier than expected reopening in China.

Optimism in the financial markets seems to be very scarce. Pessimism is rampant but fortunately, the conditions that got us here are not permanent.

The global economy could possibly avert a recession as data is starting to point to a potential soft landing; inflation appears to be moderating, wage pressures seem contained, and consumer confidence is stabilizing.

This has been one of the most chaotic and unpredictable periods in decades. It began with the pandemic; then lockdowns; a massive stimulus; re-openings; supply chain and labour shortages; inflation; war in Europe and then the fears of hiking interest rates.